Why AI is Harder Than We Think.
Since its beginning in the 1950s, the field of artificial intelligence has
cycled several times between periods of optimistic predictions and massive
investment (“AI spring”) and periods of disappointment, loss of confidence, and
reduced funding (“AI winter”). Even with today’s seemingly fast pace of AI
breakthroughs, the development of long-promised technologies such as
self-driving cars, housekeeping robots, and conversational companions has
turned out to be much harder than many people expected. One reason for these
repeating cycles is our limited understanding of the nature and complexity of
intelligence itself. In this paper I describe four fallacies in common
assumptions made by AI researchers, which can lead to overconfident predictions
about the field. I conclude by discussing the open questions spurred by these
fallacies, including the age-old challenge of imbuing machines with humanlike
common sense.

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