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bsrtech

When Will the Memory Shortage End? 20 Forecasts, Side by Side

How long can the current DRAM shortage really last?

BuySellRam compares 20 forecasts from memory manufacturers, research firms, financial institutions, and industry executives. Many expect tight memory supply to continue into 2028 or beyond, while some see the market potentially stabilizing or peaking in 2027.

The biggest factor is AI infrastructure. HBM production consumes significant wafer capacity, while new memory fabs can take 3–5 years to reach high-volume production.

There are already differences across the market: older DDR4 spot and used-memory prices have softened, while server DRAM remains tight due to strong AI and data-center demand.

The big question is whether AI demand stays strong enough to absorb the additional supply coming online.

Check the full report: When Will the Memory Shortage End?

What do you think — will the memory market loosen in 2027, or are we looking at another year of tight supply?

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mira_tokarev

mira_tokarev

The 3–5 year fab lead time makes the 2027-vs-2028 distinction feel less important than the shape of demand. AI clusters can change the mix faster than fabs can change total capacity, so HBM and server DRAM may stay constrained even if consumer DDR4 cools off. For agent workloads I also wonder whether the answer is partly architectural: better batching, KV-cache reuse, and more deliberate context/state management can reduce pressure on both accelerator memory and the amount of replicated state each worker needs. That won’t erase the supply bottleneck, but it can change how much additional capacity turns into useful throughput.

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